Tuesday, July 30, 2013

History repeats itself

Remember when almost all phones in the world were made by Nokia (2004)? Remember when Motorola Razr was the best selling phone and everyone wanted one (2005)? Where are these companies now? Nokia’s stock prices are near where it was before cell phones became popular in late 90s. Motorola Wireless is owned by Google.

This story is not unique to mobile phones nor to just new technology companies. Once giants like Kodak are falling or have fallen to anonymity. Kodak had a great global brand having many successful product lines and patents across multiple industries. The Entertainment Industry, and many like it was totally dependent on Kodak film and services. Kodak was the biggest vendor for Deluxe Entertainment up until the last few years. Kodak is now in bankruptcy!

The pattern seems to repeat itself. Take a look at Intel. It has been a dominate force since the explosion of personal computers. Intel has destroyed the competition. Their biggest competitor AMD is barely alive. Intel missed the boat on mobile. ARM has dominated that market. Smart Phones and the Tablet market are growing while the PC market is shrinking. Can Intel use it’s superior manufacturing and processes to catch up, or is this the beginning of the end for Intel? It’s conceivable that 5 years from now Intel could be consumed by another company like Google’s purchase of Motorola Wireless.

Will we learn from history or repeat the same mistake? Is EMC too focused on NetApp? Should EMC worry more about the fundamentals of storage changing instead? Will customers buy or rent storage? Can EMC’s salesforce and processes compete with more nimble companies that were created based on the rental model?